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Author: Dr Tom Ritchey
This is the first dedicated book to be published on computer-aided General Morphological Analysis (GMA) as a non-quantified modelling method. It presents the history and theory of GMA and describes how it is used to develop interactive, non-quantified inference models. Eleven case studies are presented out of more than 100 projects carried out since 1995, illustrating how GMA has been employed for structuring complex policy and planning issues, developing scenario and strategy laboratories, and analysing organisational and stakeholder structures. Also discussed are the concepts of “Wicked Problems” and “Social Messes”, their characteristics and treatment, and problems concerning the facilitation of morphological analysis workshops.
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Publications (SFP sourced available for download)
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- Morphological Analysis - A general method for non-quantified modelling
Adapted from a paper presented at the 16th Euro-Conference on Operational Analysis, Brussels (1998).
- Modelling Complex Socio-Technical Systems using Morphological Analysis
Adapted from an address to the Swedish Parliamentary IT Commission, Stockholm, December 2002.
- Futures Studies using Morphological Analysis
Adapted from an Article for the UN University Millennium Project: Futures Research Methodology Series, 2005.
- Analysis and Synthesis - On Scientific Method based on a Study by Bernhard Riemann
Reprint from: Systems Research 8(4), 21-41 (1991, revised 1996).
- Wicked Problems. Structuring Social Messes with Morphological Analysis
Adapted from a lecture given at the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm, 2004.
- Problem Structuring using Computer-Aided Morphological Analysis
This is the post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of the article published by JORS. The definitive publisher-authenticated version, Ritchey, T. Problem Structuring using computer-aided morphological analysis, Journal of the Operational Research Society (2006) 57, 792-801, is available online at: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v57/n7/abs/2602177a.html
- Developing Scenario Laboratories with Computer-Aided Morphological Analysis
Presented at the 14th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Washington DC, 2009.
- Modelling Society's Capacity to Manage Extraordinary Events
Adapted from a paper presented at the SRA (Society for Risk Analysis) Conference in Paris, 15-17 November, 2004.
- Strategic Decision Support using Computerised Morphological Analysis
Presented at the 9th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Copenhagen, 14-16 September, 2004.
- Modelling Multi-Hazard Disaster Reduction Strategies with Computer-Aided Morphological Analysis
Reprint from the Proceedings of the 3rd International ISCRAM Conference, Newark, NJ (USA), May 2006.
- Combining Morphological Analysis and Bayesian Networks for strategic decision support
From ORiON, Volume 23 (2), pp. 105-121 (2007).
- Scenarios and Strategies for an Extended Producer Responsibility System
Adapted from a Study for the Swedish Ministry of the Environment.
- Threat Analysis for the Transport of Radioactive Material using Morphological Analysis
Adapted from a paper presented at the 15th International Symposium on the Packaging and Transportation of Radioactive Materials, PATRAM 2007, Miami, Florida.
- Using Morphological Analysis to Evaluate Preparedness for Accidents Involving Hazardous Materials
Study for the Swedish Rescue Services Board, presented at the 4th International Conference for Local Authorities, Shanghai, November, 2002.
- Nuclear Facilities and Sabotage: Using Morphological Analysis as a Scenario and Strategy Development Laboratory
Adapted from a Study for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, and presented to the 44th Annual Meeting of the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management - Phoenix, Arizona, July 2003.
- Protection against Sabotage of Nuclear Facilities: Using Morphological Analysis in Revising the Design Basis Threat
Adapted from a Study for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, and presented to the 44th Annual Meeting of the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management - Phoenix, Arizona, July 2003
- Specifying Training and Instruction Requirements using Morphological Analysis
For ICELW 2010, Columbia University, June 2010.
- Living with UXO - Risk Analysis for UneXploded Ordnance
Adapted from a Study for the Swedish Armed Forces
The Consequences for Forecasting under Uncertainty and Complexity: Post-Normal Science and the Limitations of Quantitative Analysis. Pre-publication draft by Bruce Garvey – Strategy Foresight Partnership LLP, May 2010.